Ayre Index reveals $360 billion AI gap in Commonwealth
The Ayre Index identifies a $360 billion difference in potential AI-driven GDP impact after ten years between the 15 Commonwealth countries that meet its readiness benchmark and the 41 that do not. This gap equals the annual economic output of Egypt or Chile and exceeds twice the $174.3 billion in international development aid provided by major donors last year. The study was released during the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda.
Fifteen countries reach or exceed the 53-point readiness threshold. Researchers examined conditions affecting the Commonwealth’s 732 million people aged 15 to 29 and drew on 1,128 research sources to produce the first comparable assessment across all 56 member states.
Singapore tops the Index with 77.6 points, followed by Malta at 75.0, Australia at 71.0, the United Kingdom at 70.8 and Canada at 70.2. Only three of the 21 African member countries meet the benchmark: Mauritius in eighth place, South Africa in thirteenth and Nigeria in fifteenth.
Under the moderate scenario, the 15 countries above the benchmark show a combined potential AI impact on GDP of $389.2 billion after ten years, while the 41 countries below it show $29.2 billion. Individual projections include $126.1 billion for the United Kingdom, $79.1 billion for India, $73.1 billion for Canada and $56.7 billion for Australia; Bangladesh holds an $8.2 billion opportunity, Pakistan $8.1 billion, Kenya roughly $2 billion and Ghana $1.7 billion.
Calvin Ayre, founder of the Ayre Think Tank, said: “I’ve spent my life in businesses where new technology changes everything, and I know you can’t stand still. AI is going to change how we work, how we do business and how wealth is created. But this is not a race that only the biggest or richest countries can win. What matters is giving young people the skills and the chance to get ahead – whether to start businesses, find jobs or build something for themselves. Some Commonwealth countries are ahead, others have catching up to do. Nobody can afford to be complacent. That’s why we created this Index. It shows countries where they stand, what they’re getting right and where they need to do better. Governments now have to decide what they’re going to do about it.”
Access does not guarantee usage. In Togo 4G reaches 99.7 percent of the population yet only 44.9 percent of young people report internet use. In Malawi electricity reaches 15.6 percent of the population while youth internet use stands at 27.4 percent. In Papua New Guinea mobile-data costs exceed 30 percent of income for the poorest 40 percent. Enthusiasm can also outpace capability: 90 percent of young Nigerian respondents and 76.3 percent of young Bangladeshi respondents expected to use AI for education or work within a year, yet Nigeria scored 0.8 out of 10 and Bangladesh 2.3 on conventional digital-capability measures.
Readiness scores do not automatically produce secure employment. South Africa meets the benchmark but reports 46.3 percent youth unemployment. India, ranked eleventh with 60.6 points and home to 381.8 million people aged 15 to 29, has 85.8 percent of young workers in informal employment. Of the 1,128 sources examined, only 59 besides population statistics covered the full 15-to-29 age group.
Antigua and Barbuda ranks twenty-seventh with a score of 45.2 and usable values for 41 of 102 indicators, producing a Data Gap Index score of 70.6. The Bahamas shows the largest weighted data gap, lacking evidence for 78 of 111 indicators. Dominica and Saint Kitts and Nevis each lack evidence for 79 indicators. Researchers caution that missing evidence should not be read as missing ability and that governments will struggle to target investment without better information.
Professor C. Justin Robinson, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Campus Principal of the University of the West Indies, Five Islands Campus, said: “We need to make sure that the next generation will be able to do more than just consume AI products made elsewhere. Access must come with its own agency and a real equitable stake in how these systems are governed. Young people need to be equipped to question these new tools, to improve them and to be supported in building alternatives suited to their own needs. Whether that happens, will depend on choices made now. This index gives us a clearer view of where those choices are most urgent. We should use it.”
The accompanying White Paper sets out five priorities for sharing AI benefits more equitably: affordable and reliable access to technology; education that develops practical skills; stronger routes from training into employment and enterprise; AI tools suited to local languages and needs; and safeguards that enable young people to question automated decisions.
