Earthquake risk luxury homes 13x more than hurricane zones
Counties ranking in the highest 10 percent nationally for modeled earthquake losses contain roughly 13 times as many million-dollar homes as counties in the corresponding hurricane group, according to the Barcus Arenas analysis. The study placed 2,340,000 such properties, or 39 percent of the national total of owner-occupied homes valued at $1 million or more, inside those high-seismic counties. Hurricane counties held 178,185 million-dollar homes, equal to 3 percent of the total.
Inland flooding ranked second with 1,380,000 million-dollar homes and a 23 percent national share. Wildfire counties accounted for 651,180 homes or 10.9 percent, while hail, coastal flooding, strong winds and tornadoes each captured between 4 percent and 1.5 percent. The four California counties with the largest counts—Los Angeles with 517,240, Orange with 280,899, Santa Clara with 275,709 and San Diego with 218,639—together held 1,292,487 earthquake-exposed million-dollar homes.
Los Angeles County alone exceeded the combined totals of Orange and San Diego counties. The analysis also identified 628,150 properties valued at $2 million or more inside the top-decile earthquake-loss counties.
Modeled annual losses averaged $1,448 per $1 million of building value in the high-earthquake counties, compared with $2,523 per $1 million in the high-hurricane counties. The study noted that greater housing exposure therefore does not automatically translate into higher financial losses on a per-dollar basis.
Standard homeowners insurance policies generally exclude direct earthquake damage, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners states. Separate earthquake coverage, when purchased, typically carries deductibles between 2 percent and 20 percent of insured value. A 10 percent deductible on a $1 million policy would require the owner to pay the first $100,000 before coverage applies. California’s Department of Insurance confirms that mortgage lenders require homeowners insurance but do not require earthquake insurance.
U.S. Geological Survey data indicate that nearly 75 percent of the United States could experience potentially damaging earthquake shaking and that magnitude-5 or larger events have struck 37 states in the past 200 years. The updated National Seismic Hazard Model incorporates nearly 500 additional faults. The model shows elevated shaking potential extending to parts of the central and northeastern Atlantic Coast, including Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York and Boston, as well as portions of Alaska and Hawaii.
California conducted its annual Great ShakeOut drill on October 15, 2026. State preparedness guidance updated November 3 highlights seismic retrofit grants of up to $3,000 for eligible homeowners. These initiatives draw attention to the gap between ownership of high-value property in high-exposure counties and the presence of structurally reinforced, adequately insured homes.
Earthquake exposure for million-dollar homes therefore reaches well beyond California, with the national distribution and insurance exclusions creating financial implications that extend to other coastal and inland regions identified in the hazard model.
